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Vessel of Hatred

Smol Vanilla Mafia - Game over, Town Win.

Gorny said:
Counting my Dii.net forum account? 28,757.
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See! Practically breathing now your neck at this point. On a similar order of magnitude, how long until we have solar system shuttles if I want to take a weekend trip to Alpha Centuri?
 
Well, it doesn't appear I am getting the nomination (or even an up/down vote). I didn't really expect this to immediately go through unopposed. I mean, if it did, great. 2/3 odds of winning..

However, I also wanted to see everyone's reaction to it as well. There is ONE person out there that KNOWS my proposal is bad news for them. I thought that maybe I could sniff out someone subtly trying to scuttle this plan.

Nobody seems to have reacted that way though. Noodle and Snicker soundes the most skeptical of my plan, yet Snicker seems to have embraced the potential benefit to it.

Right now, (even though nobody has agreed to it) I am inclined to partner up with Snicker. Have you played mafia before @snickersnack?

I am leaning more towards a Huck vote than Pastaman at the moment. But, still not much to go on.
 
Vote Count:

Nil.

Carry on, EOD less than 6 hours from now
 
@HuckIt , I completely missed your vote. That's the forum I guess, bolding isn't showing and while skimming for votes I did not noticed it at the end of your paragraph there a while back.

So updated vote count:

Noodle: 1 (Huckit)
 
D2DC said:
I like this new (no NK) format.. normally, I would normally be banging my head against the wall trying to get people to vote.. :LOL:
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I thought you were supposed to drum up votes, not head butt votes….
 
Gorny said:
@HuckIt , I completely missed your vote. That's the forum I guess, bolding isn't showing and while skimming for votes I did not noticed it at the end of your paragraph there a while back.

So updated vote count:

Noodle: 1 (Huckit)
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Thanks, my fault for not separating text.

D2 probably wants some logic for this vote…. I want to engage Noodle and figure this should could would? Plus seems like your logic is that we have to gamble to win, so I figure betting on Noodle isn’t bad.
 
ed of D2 Votecount:

Noodle: 1 (Huckit)

It's now day 3

Time to vote someone out?
 
D2DC said:
Right now, (even though nobody has agreed to it) I am inclined to partner up with Snicker. Have you played mafia before @snickersnack?
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I have.

Based on what I've seen, I'm most inclined to align against D2DC because he seems to want to use stats to convince others to go along without appropriately explaining the meaning of those stats. This seems to me to be a tool of the dishonest.

I'll go out on a limb and assume that D2DC has something to hide, and I'm going to vote to lynch D2DC from here on out unless someone gives me a reason not to.

Vote: D2DC.
 
snickersnack said:
he seems to want to use stats to convince others to go along without appropriately explaining the meaning of those stats.
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Maybe I didn't elaborate enough? but I thought I explained my reasoning pretty thoroughly.

Everything is just based on the assumption that there is 1/4 mafia. Therefore, me (as town) randomly choosing another player gives me a 2/3 chance of picking town. The +16% is the difference between the 6/12 (50%) odds, and 2/3 (66.7%) odds. Likewise the -4% is the difference between 6/12 (50%) and 4/9 (44.4%) odds.

Is there something else I didn't make very clear?
snickersnack said:
I'll go out on a limb and assume that D2DC has something to hide
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I have absolutely nothing to hide. Huck* seems to me the most evasive player thus far. That is what I am basing my read(s) on. Scum generally don't want to move forward with meaningful discussion.

* Even though I have played with him before (and Noodle), and they both often post nothing but nonconstructive banter.

snickersnack said:
I'm going to vote to lynch D2DC from here on out unless someone gives me a reason not to.
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Well, I sincerely hope that isn't as final as it sounds. Tunnel vision on to one or two players is a good way for scum to just coast through the game unnoticed.
 
@D2DC No, no, you described the numbers pretty thoroughly, but they are irrelevant to the discussion since the same reasoning applies to any person ... as long as they are describing themselves and their options only. It's not a transferable statistic. The probabilities that describe you from your perspective do not describe me from your perspective, nor do they describe you from my perspective. Using probability in this, symmetrical, situation is useless. I only have two maths degrees, though, so maybe I'm mistaken.

So, assuming that you *do* understand the stats, I have to conclude that you're mafia since your actions seem to have the intended effect of misleading others. Then again, I've never played mafia with you, so it may be that you always try to use stats, even when they don't apply. Maybe you're knowingly misusing stats because you think that's a way to lead the other townies to safety.

Noodle and Huckit can't both be mafia, so if they both tell me that you always try to use stats in these games, then I will have to reconsider my position. So far, it hasn't changed.

Oh, here we go:
HuckIt said:
Man, as always when D2DC does this math logic stuff I remember a) I’m dumb and obviously don’t think enough to play this game properly b) I’ve seen D2 use this to talk his way to nearly town victory c) I’ve seen D2 use this method to wipe out town.
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If history is any indicator, my current position has some merit.
 
snickersnack said:
If history is any indicator, my current position has some merit.
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It’s the fun part of this game right, constricting enough guesswork to be as confident as possible when lynching.

I suppose the question is, what will cause Noodle to weigh in / vote? Or, is he enjoying the lack of time pressure, and will happily inhabit our peaceful village for as long as we’ll keep chatting?
 
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snickersnack said:
If history is any indicator, my current position has some merit.
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I do tend to try to use odds, just to kind of evaluate to overall game situation (as Huck pointed out). No hidden agenda, other than tracking down scum. Mostly, thinking out loud. Given this history, I am not sure how that helps confirm your position on me?

I don't have math degrees, so I am quite sure that I am incapable of intentionally misleading or misusing stats for nefarious means. You are right, it is the same numbers from any player's perspective. However, since I know that I am town, I know executing that plan would be beneficial to town. Obviously, other players don't know this as fact.

The simple fact that I am trying to "do" something with my proposal rather than just coast through the game posting fluff should read as town. Scum don't tend to jump right out in the open, attracting everyone's attention. They like to post very little, hoping to avoid scrutiny.

And, like I said, I was pretty sure everyone wouldn't just accept this on my word. But, at least it gives us something to get a read on reactions vs just a bunch of flippant remarks.
 
D2DC said:
And, like I said, I was pretty sure everyone wouldn't just accept this on my word. But, at least it gives us something to get a read on reactions vs just a bunch of flippant remarks.
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I'm not being flippant (and maybe you weren't either). I think about math a lot and it irks me when someone missuses numbers. Here's some light reading for anyone who's interested. (Real talk: I find that there is a general lack of numerical literacy (aka numeracy) and it pains me when I see it.)

I was a bit worried before clicking "post reply" earlier that I'd come across as combative or insulting, and I hope that didn't happen. I'm just being critical, which is something we will all do here.

D2DC said:
The simple fact that I am trying to "do" something with my proposal rather than just coast through the game posting fluff should read as town.
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No fluff there. You're trying to "read" as town?
 
HuckIt said:
It’s the fun part of this game right, constricting enough guesswork to be as confident as possible when lynching.

I suppose the question is, what will cause Noodle to weigh in / vote? Or, is he enjoying the lack of time pressure, and will happily inhabit our peaceful village for as long as we’ll keep chatting?
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I'm sure he's filing down a spaghetti strand for each of us right now.
 
I am almost always a fan of voting Noodle early. However, he had a bit of a different time for me this game. Seemed like he actually wanted to make progress in the game. Not sure if that's because he is town, or just because of the small setup.

Anyway, I am gonna vote Noodle for now, just to get him to comment. Although, he usually won't claim or anything significant under duress.

Hopefully, he will at least show his face, then he can go back to hiding out under one of our beds..

Vote: Noodle
 
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